Dear Mr. President,

Subject: Mr President, please belong to all of us

“One of the swiftest ways of destroying a Kingdom is to give preference of one particular tribe over another or show favour to one group of people rather than another. And to draw near those who should be kept away and keep away those who should be drawn near.” Usman Dan Fodio.

I have been prompted to write you this open letter, Mr. President, by the loud sounds of drums, singing and dancing that erupted within many groups in the last few days on the grounds that you attained the 5th year in office as President of Nigeria. It comes as no surprise that enthusiasm for the celebration is not shared equally by segments of the public. While your admirers and supporters believe you have performed well, many others believe the five years you have been in office as our President has not met the yearnings, expectations and the change promised Nigerians.

Mr. President, you know me well enough and my position on issues to realize that I can be neither a rabid supporter nor a fanatical opponent of yours. I believe being a responsible citizen is enough reason to wish you well and to work for your success. As we have seen all too clearly these past few years, your success is ours as is your failure. We swim or sink with you!

You might wish to recall that after the results of the 23rd of February 2019 presidential elections were announced, giving you victory, I addressed a press conference during which I urged the runner-up, Mr Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, to concede defeat. The reason was clear: tensions were running high and little missteps by the leaders might ignite violence, as often happened after major elections. Some supporters of Abubakar disagreed with me and told me off. As it happened, Abubakar went ahead to mount a legal challenge to the outcome of the elections up to the Supreme Court. Mercifully, his actions did not result in an outbreak of violence as we feared.

At the same occasion, I counselled the declared winner, your good self, to use the opportunity of your second term to redeem your pledge of being a leader and president of all Nigerians.

On the occasion of the first-year anniversary into your second four-year term, I feel there is an urgent need to revisit this subject matter.

Mr. President, you have often expressed the hope that history will be kind to you. It is within your competence to write that history. But you have less than three years in which to do it. You may wish to note that any authentic history must be devoid of myth. It will be a true, factual rendition of the record of your performance.

And truth be told, Mr. President, there are quite a lot of things that speak to your remarkable accomplishments, not least of which is that for the first time in our democratic history, a sitting President was defeated. That feat was achieved by Muhammadu Buhari. The reason was the public belief of you as a man of integrity.

The corollary to this is that at the expiration of your 8-year tenure in 2023, your achievements will not be measured solely by the physical infrastructure your administration built. An enduring legacy would be based on those intangible things like how much you uplifted the spirit and moral tone of the nation. How well have you secured the nation from ourselves and from external enemies?

At this time and in the light of all that have happened since you took office, any conversation with you Mr. President cannot gloss over the chaos that has overtaken appointments into government offices in your administration. All those who wish you and the country well must mince no words in warning you that Nigeria has become dangerously polarized and risk sliding into crisis on account of your administration’s lopsided appointments which continue to give undue preference to some sections of the country over others.

Nowhere is this more glaring than in the leadership cadre of our security services.

Mr. President, I regret that there are no kind or gentle words to tell you that your skewed appointments into the offices of the federal government, favoring some and frustrating others, shall bring ruin and destruction to this nation.

I need not remind you, Mr. President, that our political history is replete with great acts of exemplary leadership which, at critical moments, managed to pull this nation back from the precipice and assured its continued existence.

A few examples will demonstrate this:

In February, 1965, the NPC-led Federal Government was faced with a decision to appoint a successor to the outgoing Nigerian Army General Officer Commanding (GOC), General Welby Everard, a Briton. Four most senior officers were nominated; namely, Brigadiers Aguiyi Ironsi, Ogundipe, Ademulegun and Maimalari. The first three were senior to Maimalari but he was deemed to be more qualified due to his superior commission. He was the first Sandhurst Regular trained officer in the Nigerian Army. His being a Muslim Northerner like the Minister of Defense, Muhammadu Ribadu and the Prime Minister, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa granted him added advantage by today’s standards. But to the surprise of even the Igbos, and opposition from some senior NPC members, Minister Ribadu recommended Ironsi, pointing to his seniority. The Prime Minister concurred and Aguiyi Ironsi was confirmed as the first indigenous GOC of the Nigerian Army.

When on 13 February 1976, the Commander-in-Chief, Murtala Muhammed, was assassinated in a failed Coup de tat, Olusegun Obasanjo, his deputy and the most senior officer at the time, was sworn in as his successor. The Chief of Army Staff, General T.Y Danjuma, a Northern Christian, was next in line to succeed Obasanjo as the Chief of Staff, SHQ and Deputy Commander in Chief. General Danjuma however waived his right and recommended a much junior officer, Lt. Col. Shehu Musa Yar’adua, for the post. Shehu was promoted two steps up to the rank of Brigadier and appointed Chief of Staff SHQ and Deputy Commander-in-Chief. Lt. Col. Muhammadu Buhari was appointed Minister of Petroleum. This was done to placate Muslim North which was deemed to have lost one of its own, Murtala Muhammed.

Both the chief of staff, Mr. Sunday Awoniyi, and the personal physician Ishaya Audu to the Premier of Northern Nigeria, Ahmadu Bello, a direct descendant of Usman Dan Fodio, were Christians.

Barely nine years after the civil war in 1979, NPN Presidential candidate, Shehu Shagari, picked an Igbo, Alex Ekwueme, as his running mate. They enjoyed a truly brotherly relationship as President and Vice President. President Shagari’s political advisor, Chuba Okadigbo and National Assembly Liaison, assistant, K.O Mbadiwe, were both Igbos. His economic advisor, Emmanuel Edozien and his Chief of Personnel Staff Michael Prest, were of Niger Delta extraction. Remarkably, all his military service chiefs were Christians with the exception of his last Chief of Army Staff, General Inuwa Wushishi under whose tenure he was removed in a military coup de tat.

Mr. President, as a witness and beneficiary, it is our expectation that you would emulate these great acts of statesmanship. Which is why we have continued to engage with you.

You may wish to recall that I had cause to appeal to you, to confirm Mr Walter Onnoghen as substantive Chief Justice of Nigeria a few days before the expiration of his three months tenure of acting appointment to be replaced by a Muslim Northerner. We were saved that embarrassment when his nomination was sent to the senate by the then acting President, Yemi Osibanjo. When he was finally confirmed a few days to the end of his acting tenure, he was removed after a few months and replaced by Mr Tanko Muhammed, a Muslim from the North.

May I also invite the attention of Mr. President to the pending matter of appointment of President of the Nigerian Court  of Appeal which appears to be generating public interest. As it is, the most senior Judge, Mr Monica Dongban-Mensem, a northern Christian, is serving out her second three-month term as acting President without firm prospects that she will be confirmed substantive head. I do not know Dongban-Mensem but those who do attest to her competence, honesty and humility. She appears eminently qualified for appointment as the substantive President of the Court of Appeal as she is also said to be highly recommended by the National Judicial Council. If she is not and is bypassed in favour of the next in line who happens to be another northern Muslim, that would be truly odd. In which case, even the largest contingent of PR gurus would struggle to rebut the charges that you, Mr. President, is either unwilling or incapable of acting on your pledge to belong to everyone - and to no one. I hope you would see your way into pausing and reflecting on the very grave consequences of such failure not just to your legacy but to the future of our great country.

Thank you for your time, Mr. President.

Col. Abubakar Dangiwa Umar (rtd)

Once again, new economic readings from the World Bank's International Comparison Program have fed into the long-going debate over whether China is surpassing the United States as an economic and financial power. And once again, the answer to that question is a qualified "no."

The World Bank’s International Comparison Program has just released its latest measures of price levels and GDP across 176 countries, and the results are striking. For the first time ever, the ICP finds that China’s total real (inflation-adjusted) income is slightly larger than that of the United States. In purchasing-power-parity (PPP) terms, China’s 2017 GDP was $19.617 trillion, whereas the US’s stood at $19.519 trillion.

Of course, when China’s total income is divided by its massive population, the picture changes. Although China’s per capita income has pulled ahead of Egypt’s, it remains in the middle of the pack globally, behind Brazil, Iran, Thailand, and Mexico.

In any case, the two concepts – total and per capita income – each have distinct implications for geopolitics, so one must consider them separately. China wants to be treated like a developing country (at least in trade negotiations), and the ICP’s per capita income figure shows that it is precisely that. But when it comes to power politics and China’s influence in international institutions, total income matters more.

The ICP compares countries on a PPP basis, which is the right method when computing per capita incomes, but potentially problematic when assessing geopolitical power. On the latter question, a better approach would be to compare national GDPs at actual exchange rates, in which case the US economy turns out still to be far ahead of China’s.

When the ICP released its last report six years ago, it created a media flurry, with headlines such as the Financial Times’ “China poised to pass US as world’s leading economic power this year.” Those ICP measures, which pertained to 2011, showed that China’s GDP was gaining rapidly on that of the US. Soon thereafter, it was reported that the crossover had indeed taken place, at least according to national growth statistics interpolated between the six-year ICP benchmarks.

But, again, those findings were based on a PPP reading of the data. The problem, familiar to international economists, is that Chinese and US output are each measured in the country’s respective currency. How should one translate the numbers so that they are comparable?

The obvious solution is to use the contemporaneous exchange rate: multiply China’s renminbi-measured GDP by the dollar-per-RMB exchange rate, so that it is expressed in dollars. Viewed in these terms, the US economy ($19.519 trillion) is still over 50% larger than China’s ($12.144 trillion), according to the latest figures.

By contrast, measuring GDP in PPP terms is more appropriate for comparing standards of living, because it accounts for the fact that many goods and services are cheaper in China than they are in the US. Generally speaking, one RMB spent in China will go much further than one RMB spent abroad. While some internationally traded goods have similar prices, things like haircuts – a service that cannot readily be exported or imported – are cheaper in China than in the US.

The PPP measure has many uses, but assessing geopolitical power is not one of them. It is not helpful in answering the primary question that most commentators fixate on: how China’s economic size and power compare to America’s in the broader contest for global supremacy.

For that, a more relevant consideration is, for example, how much money China can contribute to the International Monetary Fund and other multilateral agencies, and how much voting power it should get in return. Another consideration is the view from other countries with rival claims in the South China Sea: how many ships can China buy, build, and deploy? For these and other geopolitical questions, it is more useful to rely on China’s GDP at current exchange rates. The issue isn’t how many haircuts Chinese consumers can buy, but what the RMB can buy on world markets.

To be sure, some point out that the IMF itself presents GDP in PPP terms for certain very limited purposes in its World Economic Outlook. But the IMF takes no stand on the question of which economy is bigger.

The closest it comes to offering an official position is with its formula guiding the assignment of quota shares to member countries. Here, the measurement of GDP is weighted, with 60% counted at market exchange rates and only 40% at PPP rates. (The GDP index accounts for half of the total formula; other measures, such as trade openness, comprise the other half.)

The IMF takes quota sizes seriously. If China were to attain a higher quota than the US, for example, the Fund’s Articles of Agreement would require it to move its headquarters from Washington, DC, to Beijing.

For now, China has far less clout than the US at the IMF. But under President Donald Trump, the US is surrendering its influence in multilateral organizations such as the World Trade Organization, NATO, and the World Health Organization (even in the midst of a pandemic). It should surprise no one that China is filling the vacuum.

The US does not lack the economic or financial power to sustain its 75-year leadership of the international order. But under Trump, it has forgotten why that leadership position is important, and is flushing its power, and its reputation, down the drain.

Project Syndicate

With many countries beginning to emerge from lockdown in the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic attention has turned to the economic recovery .

The potential shape of that recovery - U-shaped, W-shaped, V-shaped or even ‘square root-shaped’ - has split economists and strategists. All 50 U.S. states, along with the majority of European countries, have now taken steps towards reopening following lockdown restrictions.

Businesses are heading back to work, shops and restaurants reopening and airlines are preparing to resume flights.

However, chief investment officer at wealth management firm London & Capital, Pau Morilla-Giner said there were some areas of the economy that will not come back, at least not in the next five years.

These include consumer spending levels, many jobs, commercial real estate occupancy, global tourism levels and luxury goods spending. He added the venture capital-financed start-up boom and foreign student exchange levels were also unlikely to return in the short to mid-term.

Morilla-Giner said consumer spending habits, particularly for younger people, would permanently change as a result of the pandemic. He said much attention has been given to the pace at which economies should reopen, but so little at the “behavioral impact on consumers,” adding it was almost certain that people would spend less.

“For many millennials and Gen Z, one mantra will dominate spending habits from now on: ‘never again will I be financially unprepared for a crisis’. Uncertainty will bring caution, caution will bring frugality,” he said.

“Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the western world’s GDP, so this will have a knock on effect on GDP growth rates,” he added.

U.S. jobless claims rose by 2.1 million last week, taking the total above 40 million since the Coronavirus pandemic took hold in the country. The rise was down on the 2.4 million claims made the previous week, but it is the 10th consecutive week with first-time claims of over 2 million.

Morilla-Giner said many of the numbers highlighted the “scale of the evolving economic damage and its likely deep resonance,” warning that many jobs would not come back.

“There is hope that many of these jobs will come back as the economy reopens, but the risk is that rising bankruptcies result in many furloughed workers being left on the sidelines,” he said.

The travel and tourism sectors have been particularly affected by Covid-19 with many countries introducing travel restrictions on top of stay-at-home orders. Airlines across Europe and in the U.S. , including American (AAL)  , Delta (DAL)  and United (UAL) , have sought state aid in the fight for survival as planes remain grounded.

Morilla-Giner said tourism was the “achilles heel” of the global economy as it is so discretionary.

“It took U.S. airlines six years to return to profitability after 9/11 and eight years for fares to return to what they were in 2000,” he said, noting that travel and tourism accounted for 10% of global GDP and supported 10% of all jobs on the planet before Covid-19.

The World Travel and Tourism Council has said the pandemic puts a third of these jobs - 100 million - and $2.7 trillion in GDP at risk.

MarketWatch

By Gabriel Oguntoyinbo

"Parents listen to your Children We are the LEADERS of tomorrow Try to pay our school fees And give us, sound education"

For some folks who had their primary education in Nigeria, I guess they'll be familiar with the above primary school lyrics which was basically to ginger students to remain focused at their early stage in life and become Nigeria’s future Leaders in whatever capacity they find themselves. 

Who then is a Leader? There are different ways to define this, but the key qualities of a Leader must be to have a clear vision and focus of making a dire situation better, having the genuine desire to understand the feelings of the people they lead and assuring them of a better future, against all odds. These qualities are complementary with accountability, empathy, maturity and in some cases, age especially if you find yourself leading a nation where the younger generation constitute majority of the population.

Many decades ago, we were told, right from our formative years, that we would steer the ship of governance of our beloved country, and for us to achieve this, we must be educated to make the best of decisions to direct our affairs in the right path. Alas, we've been scammed, and this won’t end anytime soon, unless we rise and take the challenge on ourselves and fight for what rightly belongs to us! 

Isn't it a shame that the names we heard during the 70’s and 80’s, are still being heard till today?

Audu Ogbeh, as a case in study, was the minister of communications under the Shagari led government in 1982 when he was 35, after he was previously the deputy speaker of Benue state house of assembly in 1979, at age 32 and up until 2019, he called the shots as Buhari's minister of agriculture. In my opinion, he has done his best in all capacities and now is the best time for him and his contemporaries in other regions to take the back seat and be elder statesmen (if they choose to) and assist in advisory capacities and allow the younger generation to make a difference in our nation.

A cursory look at the current cabinet of President Buhari shows that the youngest minister is the attorney general and minister of justice, Abubakar Malami at 48 years. This then makes me wonder if there is anybody amongst the younger generation worthy of a ministerial appointment in the present administration!

A succinct look at Nigeria's leadership trajectory shows that all our military heads of state between 1966 – 1979 took the mantle of leadership (albeit through a coup d’état) under the age of 45. The 1st democratically elected president, Alhaji Shehu Shagari took over at the age of 54. 

What then happened along the line that we now parade gerontocrats as the best to lead us and jettison our  youths?

I’ve read a handful of books, journals and articles in the past which details how Nigeria was indeed the giant of Africa, supporting other nations in their times of need (the apartheid struggle in South Africa and the deployment of ECOMOG troops in Liberia’s civil war are two great examples I’ll point out). 

There was a period when our official currency was of a higher value against the pound sterling! There was a high influx of immigrants into Nigeria. What then happened along the line that has thus made Nigeria a laughing stock amongst other nations, and not a force to be reckoned with any longer?

There is no gainsaying the fact that Nigeria is presently in a state of disrepair due to the previous dysfunctional leadership it has had which thus gave rise to the current economic, security, political decay it’s citizens currently wallow in. 

To correct these ills, the major tool the electorates have in deciding who they can rely on in terms of leadership is the ballot box, using their permanent voters’ card.

Unfortunately, it can’t be said that Nigeria has had any election devoid of various forms of malpractices, and majorly, corruption.

Herein lies the crux of the matter.

An electoral system which has been destroyed on all fronts won’t be attractive for the resolute citizens to fully participate, especially youngsters who have the interest of the nation at heart. It is unimaginable that in some states, a contestant requires about N100 million to secure a seat as a house of assembly member. A continuation of this dubious practice will not augur well for the future leaders of the country as they’ll be solely focused on making all available political posts as a money-making venture. Hence the reason why you hardly see any tangible or meaningful projects being carried out as the funds are being embezzled to cover electioneering costs, mostly.

Guess what? I’m sure most of you reading this piece must have come across all I’ve written and now asking, what is the way forward? Great! This is where your attention is needed.

Now that the above scenario is not new to political watchers in the country, there needs to be a way forward which must be adopted as quickly as possible to show all seriousness in achieving this aim.

For the younger generation, one key solution in finding our path on the right track again, in my opinion, is for us to create platforms where we can assess the credibility of contestants amongst us, going forward. What are their antecedents, what are their managerial capabilities, how knowledgeable are they in various fields which will affect the lives of the citizens positively, how can they proffer solutions to issues bedevilling the country, what are their political ideologies, what political platform would they be contesting under, how will they fund their electioneering campaigns? These are serious questions that need to be asked before we can give our support to any of these contestants.

For those within our generation interested in contesting for elective positions, preferably in 2023, it is our duty as youths to rally round them, put them on their toes, and ask the questions set out above and as they relate to how the current situation can be better placed, and the future of the country can be put back on track. Infact, if necessary the youth with its numerical strength can have a political party chosen as a platform to actualise this. I agree this will be a daunting task, as every attempt by aspirants to indicate interest in political offices will be met with stiff resistance, like serious death threats until they back off.

However, engaging serious, active and willing contestants on the platform with make a stellar difference. 

As people of the younger generation, it is expedient for us to keep the hope of making Nigeria a better country. This goes beyond hurling insults on one another of different social media platforms daily. This is a time to reflect deeply and ask, what difference can one make at their active age in making Nigeria better?

As a result, I believe this is the time for the younger generation to rally round and do the needful by positioning ourselves to take the mantle of leadership, if we are desirous about putting the country back on track and make it the country we want it to truly be. 

It bothers me so much when I see youths canvassing for support on behalf of gerontocrats, whenever a presidential election, for example, is fast approaching! Why do we still rely on the same set of people who have stolen the nation blind, and who have caused the major decay in infrastructure, insecurity, unemployment, hunger et al which we daily complain about and which has caused the emigration of many youths to western countries?

A case in point is the current covid-19 pandemic which has brought the world to a standstill. In a country where you have a shortfall of medical professionals who have emigrated to mostly western countries due to the decay in the health sector, it's not a surprise how the pandemic has been badly managed in most states of the country. However, some states must be commended for the sterling efforts they've made in containing the virus, but they can do better. 

Looking at the economic sector, regarded as the life-wire of a nation, fresh ideas are needed daily to stem the tide of the pandemic. As a leader, in terms of crisis, it is pertinent to constantly address your audience (the populace) and re-assure them of what your government is doing in ensuring the casualties are contained and how they can assist in any way possible. 

At the state level, some state governors have deemed it fit to engage individuals under the age of 40 to be in their cabinet. Some great examples are in Anambra, Kwara and Cross river states where some commissioners are under the age of 40.

For me, these are great stories I like to read about as I believe these are people, who with their vast knowledge and exposure, will contribute to the betterment of their various states.

If this can be achieved at the state level, I see no reason why the government at the centre can't replicate this.

Enough of Nigerians who constitute most of the population carrying placards to show support for gerontocrats during electioneering campaign, and now is the time to come together and support those amongst us vying for various elective positions. This is a daunting task as the amount spent on campaigning and various rallies isn't child's play. One of the platforms will be focused on soliciting for funds for these contestants, and funds will be accounted for. As the bible says: the kingdom of heaven suffered violence and the violent take it by force, so we need to come together and realise our potentials by getting involved and participate in politics at all levels. 

I agree that the current political landscape in Nigeria is a dangerous path but collectively, we can make it better if we want it to be, rather than stand aloof and watch as the country gets destroyed daily. This involves the efforts of we younger generation at home and in the diaspora.

The next general election is 3 years away and I believe we can still make hay while the sun currently shines by actively participating in affairs that'll make the country a better place. IT IS IN OUR HANDS! #EndOfRant

Gabriel Oguntoyinbo (Business Consultant). 

This paper is a contribution to the NEW GENERATION LEADERSHIP, NGL Forum

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