Sokoto State government has released the sum of N7.9 million for those who could not afford medication in the state.

The chairman of the Sokoto State Zakkat and Endowment Commission, Malam Lawal Maidoki, disclosed this while presenting the money to 12 designated hospitals and pharmaceutical stores across the state.

He said the money was meant for only those who lack the means of settling their medical bills.

“It is not only meant for indigenes of the state but for every Nigerian residing in the state,” he said. 

According to him, the beneficiaries include psychiatric patients, orthopaedic patients and patients undergoing dialysis. 

He said the sum of N2m was allocated for the Usmanu Danfodiyo University Teaching Hospital and N1.9m to Psychiatric Hospital, Kware.

The Orthopaedic Hospital, Wamakko and Specialist Hospital received N500,000 each.

The sum of N600,000 was allocated to Maryam Abacha Hospital and Women and Children Hospital, Sokoto while Imam Hospital received N300,000.

Similarly, N2.1m had been allocated to five medical stores which include Zumunci Pharmacy, Binji Pharmacy, Rauda, Imam and Maigobir.

Maidoki charged members of the committees to fear God by using the money for the purposes it was meant for.

DailyTrust 

President Muhammadu Buhari has said the perpetrators of the killings and destruction on the Mambilla Plateau and other places would be arrested and prosecuted.

Justice will be done, the president said in Jalingo, the Taraba State capital at the commencement of his visit to troubled spots in five states. 

The visit will take the president to Benue, Yobe, Zamfara and Rivers States where scores of people were killed in communal violence in recent times.

The president stated this during a stakeholders meeting between the Fulani and Mambilla ethnic groups at the Government House Jalingo.

Buhari said the number of people killed on the Mambilla Plateau, Sardauna Local Government Area of Taraba was more than those killed in Zamfara and Benue states combined.

He said he was in the state to condole with the government and those who lost their loved ones. He described the attacks leading to wanton destruction of lives and property as unfortunate.He explained that relationship between members of a community should not be left to government alone but should also be the duty of the traditional institutions to ensure peaceful coexistence among their people.

In his speech, Taraba State Governor Darius Ishaku said the administration would do everything possible to ensure that peace was maintained in the state.

He also assured the president that the traditional institutions and leaders of Sardauna Local Government would be mobilized to work together to speed up the take-off of the Mambilla Hydroelectric Power Project in the area.

President Buhari was accompanied by Service Chiefs, Ministers of Information, Defence and Women Affairs as well as some members of the National Assembly from the state. 

More towns in Mambilla under attack

Meanwhile, reports from Taraba said more towns on Mambilla were attacked by suspected Mambilla militia.

Daily Trust gathered that Maisamari, Yelwa, Tunga and Kassa Sa villages were attacked on Sunday and several persons killed.

Our reporter who was in the area saw several houses and vehicles burning.

The injured were taken to General Hospital Gembu while police and relatives of those killed are searching for dead bodies.

The road leading to Jalingo from the area was also blocked for several hours by the attackers until around 3pm when a team of soldiers and police cleared the roads.

At Kassa Sa village located few kilometres from Kakara Tea company which was attacked by Suspected Mambilla militia, four people were killed and about 20 others still missing.

A leader of the village, Mallam Aliyu Mohammed, told our reporter that the attacks was unprovoked as there was no dispute with those that attacked  their community.

He said one vehicle, two motorcycles and other properties worth millions of naira were burnt by the attackers.

Our reporter also saw additional police and soldiers arriving the area at about 5pm while the atmosphere was tense in the entire Mambilla plateau even as hundreds of people have fled the area.

The Fulani community in the area alleged that  attacks being launched by Mambilla militia against them was supported by some key politicians and elite.

‘No one prosecuted yet’

A prominent member of Fulani community in Mambilla plateau, Ardo Yakubu, alleged that the militia were supported and protected because up till now no single person was arrested and prosecuted for the atrocities they committed. 

They appealed to the federal and Taraba state governments  to urgently deploy more security to protect lives and property in the area.

One of the Fulani leaders, Alhaji Bello Shadari, made the appeal during an interview with Daily Trust in Gembu adding that there were many Fulani communities being attacked across the area on daily basis.

He said most areas were inaccessible by security due to difficult terrain and the attackers were taking this advantage.

Shadari said within the last five days about 30 Fulani communities around Kakara, Leme and  Yarimaru were attacked.

He said in one community about 20 persons were missing following  Mambilla militia attack,  adding that the missing persons were still being searched for.

The community leader blamed the continued attacks on the community on the failure of relevant authorities to arrest perpetrators and prosecute them.

He said the crisis in Yelwa and Maisamari on Sunday was as a result of killing of three elderly Fulani by Mambilla.

The community leader commended the effort of both army and the police and other security agents for working toward restoring peace and called for posting of security agents into the hinterland to prevent attacks on innocent persons.

The police spokesperson, ASP David Misal, when contacted on telephone said he will not say anything on the issue, adding that “we are in the field waiting for the arrival of Mr President. I can’t comment on this issue now.” 

Refugees commission donates 406 cows, other items to victims 

The National Commission for Refugees, Migrants and Internally Displaced Persons (NCFRMI) has distributed 406 cows and assorted relief materials  worth millions of Naira  to victims of  June 2017 Mambilla attacks.

Presenting the relief materials to the victims in Gembu, headquarters of Sardauna Local Government Area yesterday, the Refugees Commissioner, Hajiya Sadiya Umar, said the commission was worried over  the plight of the displaced persons  and  the items provided was intended to reduce their sufferings.

Represented by director of procurement in the commission, Alhaji Jibril Wada, the commissioner said before coming to Taraba, the commission, in continuation of its 2017 intervention flagged off the 2018 exercise in Kebbi, FCT, Nassarawa, Edo, Benue and Bauchi State.

She observed that the commission took cognizance of the disturbing humanitarian crisis that erupted on the Mambilla plateau with available statistics indicating that about 351 persons were killed, 381 people went missing, and over 20,000 cows killed or stolen.

Hajiya Sadiya stated further that it was also disturbing to note that about 483 houses or settlements were razed down during the attacks. 

The  commissioner also  disclosed that  the cows donated was  aimed at restocking the herds of the victims, adding that the commission also  donated 308 sprayer kits, 308 cartons of pesticides, 308 cartons of Herbicides and 400 units of Grinding Machines mainly for widows.

She stated that the commission had also donated hygiene and care material for women and children as well as assorted drugs for maternity and dispensaries in the affected areas.  

She appealed for peace and assured that the commission would continue to support the vulnerable people and ensure they return to their homes to continue with their normal lives.  

The Wakilin Fulani Alhaji Saidu Bawa,  in an address on behalf of the beneficiaries, appealed to the commission to reconstruct destroyed homes and  rehabilitate nomadic schools destroyed during the attacks.

He also appealed for assistance to  those who became widows and orphans as a result of the June 2017 attacks and facilitation of the return of victims who were still taking refuge in neighbouring Republic of Cameroon

Latest report said more Fulani villages and settlements were attacked last night in the area by suspected Mambilla militia men leading to killings and destruction of houses.

DailyTrust 

Former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan and three other heads of  international election observation missions in Sierra Leone on Monday  pledged to remain impartial and ensure that the election  complied with the relevant regional protocols and international best practices.

Mr Paul Ejime, spokesman of  the ECOWAS Network of Electoral Commissions (ECONEC), on behalf of others,  said the missions agreed to continue constructive engagements with the country’s stakeholders and to hold further consultations among themselves before and after the elections.’’

Sierra Leoneans would vote in the country’s presidential, parliamentary and local Council elections on  Wednesday.

The meeting of the monitors, coordinated by ECOWAS and the African Union, was held to strategise on effective value addition to the electoral process ahead of the  election on Wednesday.

The meeting was attended by Prof Amos Sawyer, Liberia’s former Interim President, for ECOWAS; and Kgalema Motlanthe, the former South African President for AU.

The two other leaders were Ghana’s former President John Dramani Mahama, for the Commonwealth and Nigeria’s former President Goodluck Jonathan, for the Election Institute for Sustainable Democracy in Africa (EISA).

“ After an exchange of information on the work of the observers on ground, the Heads of Missions discussed the level of preparations for the poll.

“They also discussed emerging scenarios, identifiable challenges, especially the and legal issues before the Supreme Court and the way forward.

“They noted that while international observers could render support, the success of the electoral process is the primary responsibility of Sierra Leoneans,” the missions said.

According to the missions,  the new ECOWAS Commissioner for Political Affairs, Peace and Security Gen. Francis Behazin had joined the Prof. Sawyer-led ECOWAS Observation Mission as leader of the Commission’s Technical Support Team to the Mission.

NAN reports that the Sierra Leone Telegraph, reported that both Dr Samura Kamara of the ruling All People’s Congress (APC) and Dr Kandeh Yumkella of the National Grand Coalition (NGC) Presidential candidates are facing separate suits against them at the Sierra Leone Supreme Court.

The separate petitions are to determine if they are qualified to contest the  presidential election.

The petitioner against Kamara  wants the Supreme Court to disqualify him for violation of electoral laws, which states that all public officials wishing to contest the elections must have resigned from their posts at least 90 days prior to the elections.

He is alleged to have been receiving his government salary as foreign minister and had failed to resign his job in accordance with the law.

It is also alleged that Samura has both Sierra Leone and British citizenships, and has failed to renounce his British citizenship before his nomination as the presidential candidate of the ruling APC.

On the other hand, the case against Yumkella, who is also contesting Parliamentary election at the same time, was filed by APC,  claiming he is ineligible to contest the constituency election in Kychum,  his place of birth,  in the Northern district of Kambia.

The Sierra Leone’s National Electoral Commission (NEC) has declared that Yumkella was free to contest the parliamentary election until decided otherwise by the  Supreme court.

It was reported that Yumkella’s name is on the ballot papers for both presidential and parliamentary elections.

NAN

The Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Dr. Maikanti Baru has said that the corporation has as at today brought down the cost of production of oil in the neighborhood of $20 per barrel.

Baru said this at the opening ceremony of the 2018 Technology Innovation Expo organized by the Ministry of Science and Technology in Abuja yesterday. The week-long expo aims to highlight the capabilities of Nigerian scientists, engineers, and inventors in contributing to economic diversification. 

“The more we bring down the cost, the more the money that comes to the federal government and into the pockets of state and local governments.”

 “Our target is to make sure it clocks $15 and we will continue to work towards that,” he said.

According to him,  lot of Nigerians will be involved in all aspects of engineering, procurement and construction of key projects including the impending revamp of the country’s refineries.

The GMD who was represented by NNPC’s Chief Operating Officer (COO), Gas and Power, Engr. Saidu Mohammed added that every form of service before and after the repair of the four refineries was going to be provided by Nigerians.

The federal government plans to announce later this month private companies it has chosen to repair, revamp and maintain the country’s ailing refineries.

Baru noted that the corporation was extending its local content presence to the 614 kilometer 40-inch Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) Gas pipeline project recently approved by the Federal Executive Council (FEC) estimated to cost about 2.8 billion dollars.

“Those who are coming in to build this pipeline have it in mind that they may have to come with their mills to manufacture the line pipes right here,” he said about how the project would benefit Nigerian contractors.

PT

The United States (U.S.) has expressed concern over the heavy indebtedness by African countries a few years after they were relieved of their debts by international financial institutions.

News Agency of Nigeria reports that the U.S. Department of State, during a background briefing on the first trip of Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to Africa, said such loans were unhelpful to the continent.

Tillerson would meet with Nigeria’s President Muhammadu Buhari and also leaders of Chad, Djibouti, Ethiopia and Kenya during his travels from Tuesday, March 6 to 13.

To date, debt reduction packages under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative have been approved for 36 countries, 30 of them in Africa, providing 76 billion dollars in debt-service relief over time.

In 2005, to help accelerate progress toward the UN Millennium Development Goals, the HIPC Initiative was supplemented by the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI).

MDRI allowed for 100 per cent relief on eligible debts by three multilateral institutions – the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the African Development Fund – for countries completing the HIPC Initiative process.”

The department said: “in the Africa region, we are going to have a heart-to-heart discussion with the Chinese. We’ve invited the Chinese to come to Washington to talk about their programs in Africa.

“And so on the one hand, the unhelpful role is the providing low-interest but really concessionary loans which really indebts the country.

“So for all of us who worked on HIPC – in other words, getting African countries post-colonial period out of debt – to see these countries re-indebted again is not only outrageous but terrible.

“I mean, we spent so much time getting them out of debt, and to see them to go back on debt is just terrible.

“And it goes back to not only corruption in some of these states, but also the ease in which not only China – and you’re talking Russia, Iran, and other countries providing low-interest loans.

“And this is really kind of another forum of impoverishment and poverty, because unlike HIPC, we can’t really kind of repay loans back to banks.

“And so this is going to be a very tough issue to address”.

The U.S. said its relationship with China over Africa was a very complex one.

“We have a lot of areas and issues that we’re in conflict, but the issue is that we’re trying to find the areas where we can build some type of support and cooperation that will be to the betterment of Africa.

“But one area that’s not to the betterment is these loan rates, which is terrible. So we’ve looked at countries, and we’re doing data dumping.

“Some – a lot of countries in Southern Africa and parts of the east and west-!are having anywhere from 50 per cent to in one case 200 per cent of GDP debt.

“And 80 per cent and 50 per cent are probably Chinese loans, and that’s really not acceptable, and that’s an area that we really need to address and focus on,” the U.S. stressed.

It, however, said it was not in any way “countering China” as far as Africa was concerned but was more concerned about resolving tensions and problems in Africa.

“How can we make China much more supportive of the overall development of Africa?

“Because what we don’t want to see is – let’s say, for instance, Congo, which is very rich in resources – where you see Russia, China, North Korea, Iran taking out resources, yet the Congolese don’t receive very much in benefits.

“How do you resolve that? How do you develop, how do you get these countries to really benefit from the resources that they have, yet at the same time these countries such as China, Russia, Iran is also developing but also they give back a lot to the Africans?

“And that’s an issue and a question we need to pursue during this trip to Africa,” the Department elaborated. 

NAN

The Economic and Financial Crimes  Commission on Monday re-arraigned a former governor of Oyo State, Adebayo Alao-Akala, and two others in an Oyo State High Court sitting in  Ibadan over alleged N11.5bn fraud.

The News Agency of Nigeria reports that the other defendants are a former Oyo State Commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Matters, Senator Hosea Agboola; and an Ibadan-based businessman, Femi Babalola.

The defendants are facing 11 counts bordering on conspiracy, awarding a contract without budgetary provision, obtaining by false pretence, acquiring property with money derived from an illegal act and concealing the ownership of such property, among others.

EFCC’s counsel, Dr. B. Ubi,  told the court that when Alao-Akala was the governor of Oyo State,  he awarded a  road contract worth N8.5bn between 2007 and 2009 to Pentagon Engineering Services.

Ubi alleged that the firm, owned by Babalola, handled the contract on behalf of the 33 local governments without budgetary provision.

The counsel further claimed that Alao-Akala ordered the supply of drilling machines on behalf of the 33 local governments in the state to the tune of N3.5bn.

He also alleged that Alao-Akala conspired with Ayoola to withdraw N2.9bn from Oyo State Local Government Joint Account.

The prosecutor told the court that Alao-Akala also illegally acquired some property on Old Bodija road, off Rotimi Williams road,  when he was the governor of the state.

He said the offences contravened Section 22 (4) of the Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Act and Section 1 (18) of the Advanced Fee Fraud Act.

The defendants, however,  pleaded not guilty to the charges.

Mr. Hakeem Afolabi, a Senior Advocate of Nigeria and counsel to Alao-Akala and Babaloa prayed the court to exercise its discretion in granting bail to the defendants.

Afolabi said the charge before the court was not a fresh one but a re-arraignment.

He said the matter was first filed on October 11, 2011 before Justice Moshood Abas and bail was granted after the defendants met the conditions.

NAN recalls that the defendants had also appeared before Justice Akintunde Boade and Justice Bayo Taiwo who was recently transferred out of Ibadan Division.

Afolabi said Alao-Akala was granted bail in the sum of N5m with two sureties in like sum; while the other defendants were granted bail in the sum of N3m each with two sureties in like sum.

Afolabi urged the court to allow the defendants to enjoy their earlier bail conditions.

Mr. Richard Ogunwole, another Senior Advocate of Nigeria and counsel to Ayoola, aligned with the submission of Alao-Akala’s counsel.

The EFCC’s  counsel said he would not oppose the bail applications.

Justice Muniru Owolabi granted the defendants’ prayers and adjourned the case till  April 16 for trial.

(NAN)

President Muhammadu Buhari on Monday made known his intention to visit Taraba, Benue, Yobe, Rivers, and Zamfara states.

A statement signed by the Special Adviser to the President on Media and Publicity, Femi Adesina, and forwarded to DAILY POST, said, “In view of recent terrorist attacks, criminal activities and communal clashes in some States leading to tragic loss of lives and kidnapping of 110 schoolgirls, President Muhammadu Buhari immediately tasked the Armed Forces and other Security agencies to compile comprehensive reports on the various incidents.

“Having received and studied the Reports, the President has decided to undertake an on the spot assessment of the various occurrences and to meet and console the communities affected.

“From today, March 5, he will visit Taraba, and subsequently Benue, Yobe, Zamfara and Rivers States.

“President Buhari has been receiving daily briefings, and has been in constant touch with the Governors, and has been updated with situation reports.

“The President calls on all Nigerians especially those in the affected areas to cooperate fully with the Security Agencies to enable them curb the spate of crimes, bring those responsible to justice and prevent further occurrences.”

DAILY POST recalls that the Serving Overseer of the Latter Rain Assembly, Pastor Tunde Bakare, yesterday joined other Nigerians in condemning Buhari’s visit to Kano for the wedding between the children of two governors when he was yet to visit states that had witnessed violence. , wondering why the President had refused to visit crisis ridden areas in the current.

DailyPost 

Medicines Sans Frontier (MSF), also known as Doctors Without Borders, says it has suspended its medical services for the over 40, 000 Internally DIsplaced Persons (IDPs) in Rann, headquarters of Kala Balge local government area of Borno state.

The organisation said it pulled out is staffers from the remote community, for safety reasons, following the Thursday night attack by Boko Haram who killed 11 persons including UN humanitarian workers and abducted two midwives.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said on Saturday that there were 55,000 IDPs living in Rann who were in need of care.

MSF expressed worry that about 60 malnourished children whose cases they were managing would be affected by its absence.

The organisation said it would only return to the embattled community when it deems it fit that security has improved.

The statement, issued from Geneva and made available to PREMIUM TIMES by MSF Borno state Field Communication Officer, Musa Yahaya, reads in full:

“Following a violent attack in Rann, Borno state, on Thursday 1 March, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) suspended its medical activities in the town and evacuated 22 national and international staff. It is still unclear how many people were killed and injured but before leaving, MSF medical staff treated 9 wounded patients.

“The 40,000 people living in Rann were relying almost entirely on MSF’s services to access healthcare.

“Leaving our patients, which include 60 children currently enrolled in our nutrition programme, without medical assistance, is an extremely painful decision,” says Kerri Ann Kelly, MSF Emergency Coordinator in Nigeria. “We will continue to evaluate how the situation evolves and we will return as soon as the conditions allow. This latest attack is a stark reminder that it is the people in Borno who are paying the price of this ruthless conflict. They are trapped in a deadly cycle of violence and are heavily reliant on external assistance to survive. In Rann, this is now considerably reduced.”

“MSF teams have been providing medical care to the 40,000 people in Rann, since January 2017. Mobile teams delivered assistance on a regular basis, and a permanent medical team has been based in Rann since September 2017. The people in Rann are extremely vulnerable, many have sought shelter there after fleeing their homes.

MSF has mainly been treating people for malaria, malnutrition and illnesses linked to poor living conditions.

The town was cut off from the outside world during the months of the rainy season and no food or aid supplies were brought in during this time. We estimate that the mortality rate in children under five in Rann was twice that of the emergency threshold between May and November 2017”.

MSF’s exit from Rann is coming two days after the ICRC pulled out its personnel following the attack by Boko Haram which led to the abduction of two of their midwives.

PT

We are back to the boulevard of helplessness, exactly where we were on the night of 14–15 April 2014, when 276 female students were snatched from their beds by Boko Haram terrorists in Chibok, Borno State. In my wildest daydream, I never imagined that we could be so rudely shocked again. 

Apparently, nothing was learnt from the last abduction. Contrary to the chest-beating and self-congratulation of all those whose duty it is to keep the country safe, Boko Haram is alive and well — and could strike chosen targets at will despite the billions of Naira we have thrown at the problem. 

The Chibok abduction happened under the watch of Civilian Jonathan. Government took two weeks to react. Now Soldier Buhari has his own Dapchi albatross to contend with and coordinated response took 48 hours in coming. Apparently, it’s not just about who is in charge but whether we have fundamentally changed the system to ensure ruthless competence rather than eye service and political correctness. 

When the EFCC unearthed the insane looting perpetrated by former service chiefs under the former administration, it was clear that corruption had civilianised our military bigwigs. The billions that were meant to prosecute the war were diverted to buying houses for underaged children of generals and pampering mistresses, while ill-equipped soldiers were court-marshalled for refusing to lay down their lives in a war in which they were so comprehensively outgunned. 

What has changed? 

While there seems to be a lot of motion and competition among the various security forces to give us the impression of a radical shift in tactics, commitment and strategy, the Dapchi abduction has shown us that it is all motion without movement. 

It was all so easy. Terrorists wearing army uniforms shot their way into the Government Girls Science and Technical College, Dapchi, Yobe State, claiming to be soldiers sent to protect them. They came with trucks. Some of the girls heeded the advice of their principal and voted with their feet, especially as they noted the inscriptions of “Allahu akbar” on the vehicles and the knickerbocker-type trousers of the supposed soldiers (tell-tale giveaways of Boko Haram fighters). But Boko Haram still made a handsome haul: 110 captives; a great day in the office for the terrorists.  

It turned out that the military had ben withdrawn from Dapchi shortly before the attack. The army first claimed that it handed over to the police before withdrawing, but that claim has been punctured by the police commissioner who insisted that, “There was no time that the military informed the Police of their withdrawal ….” 

So, who ordered the withdrawal of the army from Dapchi before the abduction? Why have the recommendations of the committee that probed the earlier Chibok abductions not been implemented? What does government hope to achieve by instituting another ‘fact-finding’ committee to probe the series of unprofessional decisions that aided the abductions?  

With the billions allegedly spent so far to pay ransom for the release of earlier captives, could the latest incident be seen as contrived to shake down the government? Has an industry developed around Boko Haram kidnap-for-ransom? Are there Boko Haram informants/sympathisers within the security forces?   

My heart goes out to the helpless parents of the hapless girls. 

The Jama’atu Nasril Islam (JNI) is as puzzled as we all are and is seeking answers to the following pertinent questions: “Is this abduction not a near confirmation of the rumour making the rounds that security operatives do not want the war on Boko Haram to end because of the pecuniary benefits they derive therefrom? Again, why did the Dapchi girls’ abduction happen months before the 2019 general election, just like the Chibok girls’ abduction of 2014? Are there orchestrated plans somewhere to make a case for more security votes?  

“How did the perpetrators gain access to the school? How come they were not prevented or intercepted? Does it mean that when they were coming no security or informants provided any hint? Aren’t the security operatives conversant with Sun Tzu’s Five Types of Spies in his The Art of War: Local, Inside, Double, Doomed and Surviving?” 

Nigerians are not impressed by government’s explanations so far. Boko Haram abduction is not a volcanic eruption, nor a hurricane, nor a tsunami, nor any other natural disaster, but a predictable act of terror. Instead of being prepared to forestall the terrorists’ calculations, we have been busy claiming victory in successive battles. 

 Boko Haram is several steps ahead because we have refused to OUT-THINK them. When you chase the terrorists out of Sambisa Forest, do you think they would vaporise? Don’t you know they’ll invade other communities? 

We should all be ashamed. Boko Haram is not a country; it does not have a National Assembly nor a budget of trillions of Naira. It does not have a proper army, navy or air force; no DSS, NIA, NSCDC, Police or Special Forces; no jets and no drones, no ministry of defence. To have such a rag-tag terror machine rub Nigeria’s nose in the dust now and again is a bleeding shame! 

I do not for one minute gloss over the gallant efforts of our military, especially the Nigerian Air Force, in many of their confrontations with the terrorists. But something is still very wrong. We need to dredge the marshes of our security apparatus. Heads have to roll!

The EU struggled Monday to absorb the shock of a populist breakthrough in Italy amid fears that the anti-migrant blowback would threaten a post-Brexit reform drive led by France and Germany.

The jolt from Rome came hours after Germany snapped months of political stalemate in Berlin, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel clinching four more years in power on a cautious pledge to help overhaul Europe.

The respite from Germany was short-lived with the advance in Italy of the anti-establishment Five Star Movement and far-right anti-migrant eurosceptics.

Analysts said the EU would now be split between those like French President Emmanuel Macron who say the answer to populism is bolstering Europe and others who will claim that any further EU integration must be abandoned, at least for now.

"You will have people against striking a reform deal, saying that now, especially with this mess in Italy, it is not the right moment for taking up risks," said Janis A. Emmanouilidis, research director at the European Policy Centre in Brussels.

Meanwhile "there will be others who will say if you look at Italy and the anti-establishment voters fed up with the economic situation and migration, that we simply can't pretend to go on as we are," he added.

Pressure to reform the EU and deepen ties among the soon-to-be 27 member states mounted in 2016 with the populist-fuelled vote in Britain to split from the bloc.

The populist narrative slowed last May when Macron came to power in France promising to end "business as usual" in Europe with a series of ambitious proposals.

But momentum for change was thwarted almost from the start in Germany when an uncertain election result in September forced Merkel into tortuous coalition building that finally ended Sunday with a deal with the SPD centre-left.

- Italy 'suffers' EU failure -

Now Italy could be the impediment to change, analysts said.

"With M5S and the eurosceptic League performing better than expected, further progress on European integration could be difficult," said Jack Allen of macroeconomic research firm Capital Economics.

"For example, they will push back against efforts to increase Italy’s contributions to the EU budget after the UK leaves the Union," he added.

The biggest pressure on Europe will be on fixing migration, with Italy on the frontline of the wave of migrants from Africa, which hardened anti-EU sentiment in Sunday's vote.

Under the EU's controversial Dublin process, frontline states suffer the brunt of the influx, fuelling xenophobia in countries such as Italy and Greece.

"Against the migration flow, the EU did not meet the call of duty due to fears over national sovereignty. Italy suffered the consequences," said French MEP Jean Arthuis on Twitter.

This issue was further worsened by the economy, with Italy still an EU growth laggard despite adopting big reforms demanded by Brussels that have yet to deliver widely felt benefits.

Faced with that failure, analysts said the most imminent danger was that a populist-run Rome would increase spending to deliver on campaign promises in disregard of EU rules.

"This will create more friction between Rome and the European Commission," said Federico Santi of the Eurasia Group risk consultancy.

"Italy is already at risk of failing to comply with EU-mandated fiscal targets, and any additional slippage may result in (sanctions by Brussels)," he added.

- 'Euro exit' unlikely -

But others said it was the economy that could very well keep Italy in line, as was the case in 2011 when longtime premier Silvio Berlusconi was forced to resign after the financial markets turned on him.

"Euro exit, let alone EU exit, remain very unlikely," said Santi, adding that the difficulty of the populists to build a stable government "may last well into the spring."

In the end, "the good news out of Germany yesterday -- the SPD’s approval of the coalition treaty" may well end up being the most consequential, said Loredana Federico, chief Italian economist at Unicredit, in a note to clients.

"Any tentative plan... to put Italy on a collision course with that idea... will most probably face difficulty," she added.

AFP