Nigeria may be heading towards a major voter participation crisis in the 2027 general elections, as a new survey by Yiaga Africa has revealed a huge gap between Nigerians’ intention to vote and their actual commitment to turn up at the polls.
Although 84 per cent of Nigerians surveyed said they were likely or very likely to vote in 2027, only 41 per cent said they were firmly committed to voting.
The finding was contained in the third edition of Yiaga Africa’s National Voter Intention Survey, presented during a policy roundtable on the 2027 elections in Abuja on Wednesday.
The survey, conducted in September 2026, involved 2,470 Nigerians aged 18 and above across the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory.
Of the respondents, 2,066 were interviewed by telephone, while 404 were reached through face-to-face interviews, particularly in rural communities.
Explaining the methodology, Yiaga Africa’s Senior Manager and Head of Knowledge Management and Learning, Safiya Bichi, said the mixed approach was adopted to ensure that Nigerians without access to telephones were not excluded.
She said the latest findings showed that the headline figure of 84 per cent voter intention should not be mistaken for certainty about election-day participation.
“84 per cent of citizens said they intended to vote, but only 41 per cent are committed to vote in this election,” Bichi said.
The survey also revealed that 44 per cent of those who intend to vote have not yet decided which candidate to support.
This means a significant portion of the electorate remains politically fluid and could still change its preference before the 2027 election.
Voter intention rises, commitment falls
Yiaga Africa's findings show that overall voter intention has increased since the first survey.
The proportion of Nigerians who said they were likely to vote rose from 77 per cent in the first survey to 73 per cent in the second and then to 84 per cent in the latest survey.
But the more important indicator—those who said they were “very likely” to vote—has moved in the opposite direction.
The figure fell from 52 per cent to 48 per cent and then 47 per cent across the three surveys.
For Yiaga Africa, the figures reveal a troubling contradiction: more Nigerians are saying they intend to vote, but their certainty about actually showing up is weakening.
Insecurity casts shadow over 2027
Insecurity emerged as one of the biggest threats to voter participation.
The survey found that 61 per cent of respondents feared violence could stop them from voting.
The concern was even higher in the North-East, where 78 per cent identified violence as a potential barrier.
Overall, 82 per cent said they were very concerned that insecurity could affect the conduct of the 2027 elections.
Trust in the security agencies is also weak.
Only 48 per cent of respondents said they trusted security agencies to protect their votes.
And when asked what would most encourage them to participate, 83 per cent identified improved security.
Better logistics was cited by 38 per cent, while 20 per cent wanted stronger candidates.
INEC confidence crashes to 34%
The Independent National Electoral Commission is also facing a major trust challenge ahead of the elections.
Only 34 per cent of respondents said they had confidence in INEC, a significant decline from the 45 per cent recorded in each of the first two rounds of the survey.
Interestingly, Nigerians appear to trust electoral technology more than the institution managing the election.
While only 34 per cent expressed confidence in INEC, 49 per cent said they trusted election technology, including accreditation technology and the IReV results-transmission system.
Bichi said the finding suggested that Nigerians were increasingly looking to technology as a safeguard for electoral credibility.
‘We want change’
The survey also revealed what may become one of the strongest forces shaping the 2027 election—the desire for political change.
Nearly half of respondents, 49 per cent, said their main reason for voting was the desire for a change in leadership.
Only 20 per cent cited civic duty, while 16 per cent identified specific candidates.
The finding suggests that political parties and candidates may have to sell more than personalities and campaign slogans to win over voters.
For many Nigerians, the election appears to be increasingly about whether the country should continue on its current political path or change direction.
Vote buying remains alive
Despite repeated electoral reforms and campaigns against vote buying, financial inducement remains a significant feature of Nigeria's elections.
According to the survey, 19 per cent of respondents said they had received money as an incentive to vote for a particular candidate.
The figure rose to 32 per cent in the North-West.
Among young respondents, 24 per cent said they had received money to vote for a candidate.
The findings suggest that vote buying remains deeply entrenched despite efforts by electoral authorities and civil society organisations to curb the practice.
Young Nigerians reluctant to vote
Another major warning from the survey concerns young voters.
Despite their numerical strength within Nigeria's electorate, younger respondents showed significantly weaker intentions to vote.
Only 40 per cent of respondents in the younger age group said they were likely to vote, compared with 64 per cent among those aged 61 and above.
The figures raise fresh questions about the ability of political parties and electoral stakeholders to mobilise young Nigerians for the 2027 election.
A gender gap was also recorded.
While 65 per cent of men said they were likely to vote, only 57 per cent of women expressed the same intention.
Nigerians increasingly aware of electoral reforms
Awareness of electoral reforms, however, has recorded a major increase.
Only 24 per cent of respondents were aware of the electoral reform process during the first survey in December.
The figure rose to 37 per cent in March before jumping to 62 per cent in the latest survey.
Yiaga Africa linked the increase partly to growing public awareness following the passage of the 2026 Electoral Act.
Judiciary also suffers trust deficit
The credibility problem extends beyond INEC.
The survey found that 63 per cent of Nigerians lacked confidence in the judiciary's ability to resolve electoral disputes fairly and effectively.
The South-South recorded the highest level of distrust, with 81 per cent expressing a lack of confidence.
The finding suggests that Nigerians' concerns cover almost every major stage of the electoral process—from voting and security to election administration and post-election litigation.
INEC pushes back
Responding to the concerns during the panel session, the Director of the Voter Education and Publicity Department at INEC, Victoria Eta-Messi, defended the commission's efforts to improve the electoral process.
She expressed concern that Nigerians continued to judge the commission largely through the lens of the 2023 elections.
“The fact that people just keep holding on to 2023 rather than seeing the small steps that we’re making is a bit worrisome,” she said.
Eta-Messi pointed to the recently concluded Osun election as an example of improvements INEC hoped to consolidate before 2027.
She said the commission was encouraged by the deployment of personnel and electoral materials during the election.
According to her, INEC is also strengthening its logistics, infrastructure and training while engaging transport unions to improve the movement of personnel and election materials.
She added that technology would continue to play a role in elections but would operate alongside human checks and safeguards.
The 2027 warning
With the 2027 elections approaching, Yiaga Africa's findings expose a troubling contradiction.
Nigerians increasingly say they want to vote, but fewer appear certain they will.
They want change, but insecurity threatens their participation.
They increasingly trust election technology, but confidence in INEC is falling.
And while the youth constitute a critical part of the electorate, their willingness to participate appears significantly weaker than that of older voters.
For political parties, INEC, security agencies and civil society organisations, the message is clear: the battle for 2027 may not only be about winning votes—it may first be about convincing Nigerians to come out and cast them.
