The average cost of preparing a pot of jollof rice in Nigeria dropped by 11.5 per cent in the third quarter of 2026, marking the sharpest quarterly decline in a decade, but persistent economic hardship continues to undermine households’ purchasing power.
This was disclosed in the October 2026 Jollof Index report released on Wednesday by SBM Intelligence, an Africa-focused research and consulting firm.
According to the report, the average cost of preparing the popular Nigerian meal fell by N3,400, from N29,578 in June to N26,178 in September, following declines in the prices of chicken, beef, vegetable oil and other ingredients.
However, SBM Intelligence warned that the reduction had yet to translate into meaningful financial relief for millions of households, as food prices remained significantly higher than in previous years while incomes largely stagnated.
“A fall of 11.5 percent in the index, or 8.5 percent adjusted, has restored some protein and some vegetables to some pots,” the report stated.
“It has not restored bulk buying, and it has not changed the household budget arithmetic.”
The firm said the decline was the largest since the index was introduced in July 2016, surpassing previous quarterly reductions of about six per cent recorded in 2017 and 2018.
Despite the latest drop, the September 2026 cost remained 5.8 per cent higher than the corresponding period of 2025 and a staggering 540 per cent above the N4,087 recorded in July 2016.
SBM Intelligence, however, disclosed that an error in collecting curry and thyme prices from two Ibadan markets had exaggerated the national decline.
After correcting the discrepancy, the firm estimated that the actual reduction stood at 8.5 per cent, putting the adjusted average cost at approximately N27,055.
Lagos Records Biggest Price Drop
The report showed significant regional differences in food prices, with Lagos recording the steepest quarterly decline of 35.6 per cent, as the cost of preparing jollof rice fell from N34,700 to N22,350 across the Trade Fair and Balogun markets.
Kano recorded a 9.4 per cent decline to N23,400, while prices at Abuja’s Wuse II market fell by 4.8 per cent to N27,800.
In contrast, Port Harcourt recorded a 2.6 per cent increase, with the cost rising to N32,000 amid flooding, transportation disruptions and damage to agricultural production.
Markets in Calabar recorded only marginal reductions, while food costs remained more than 35 per cent above their September 2025 levels.
SBM Intelligence attributed the nationwide moderation to improved poultry supplies, lower animal feed costs and seasonal harvests.
Falling Food Prices Fail To Ease Hardship
Despite the decline, household interviews conducted by the research firm indicated that cheaper food had not significantly improved consumers’ ability to afford basic necessities.
“In the Kano round, respondents said market prices have fallen, but our income has not increased,” the report stated.
In Abuja, households continued to grapple with rising financial obligations, including rent, school fees, transportation and electricity bills.
An Ibadan respondent similarly explained that the reduction in food prices had not restored the household’s ability to buy provisions in bulk because salaries remained unchanged.
The findings underscore the gap between falling market prices and meaningful improvements in living standards, as many Nigerians continue to contend with the cumulative effects of high living costs and weak purchasing power.
SBM Warns Of Possible Price Reversal
The research firm cautioned that the recent relief could be temporary, warning that elevated transportation costs and fuel prices could reverse some of the gains.
“The relief is harvest-shaped and feed-shaped, and both are seasonal,” the report stated.
It added that transportation costs increased in seven of the eight markets surveyed, despite the decline in food prices.
SBM Intelligence consequently urged policymakers to address structural challenges in the food supply chain, including poor road infrastructure, high fuel costs and informal charges imposed along transportation routes.
The firm stressed that sustainable reductions in food prices would require improvements in distribution systems and measures to reduce the cost of moving agricultural produce from farms to markets.
“For households, the arithmetic is simpler and harsher. The pot is cheaper than it was in June, still dearer than it was last September, and the money coming in has not moved,” the report concluded.
