ANALYSTS QUERY APC’S 10.9M PRIMARY FIGURES SURPASSING 2023 GENERAL ELECTION VOTES

President Bola Tinubu, on Saturday, polled 10,999,160 votes in the just-concluded 2026 All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential primary — comfortably surpassing the 8,794,726 votes he secured in the 2023 general election.

The difference of over 2.2 million votes is remarkable because the primary was a members-only exercise, while the 2023 general election was an open contest involving more than 93 million registered voters and strong opposition candidates. 

This outcome has triggered fresh scrutiny of the APC’s internal membership strength, the quality of its register, and the party’s mobilisation capacity in barely months to the 2027 general election. 

STATE-BY-STATE BREAKDOWN

Here is how Tinubu performed in the 2026 APC presidential primary compared to his 2023 presidential election votes.

KEY PATTERNS IN THE DATA

Strongest gains occurred in the south-east (Imo, Enugu, Ebonyi, Abia) and parts of the south-south (Delta, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom) regions, where Tinubu performed poorly in 2023.

In Lagos, his political base, Tinubu showed a robust recovery — from 572,606 votes in 2023 (a loss to Peter Obi, 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party) to 814,988 in the recent primary.

North-east delivered mixed but generally positive results, with Adamawa, Atiku’s state, and Gombe posting huge gains. He suffered slight declines in core northern strongholds like Kano, Katsina, Jigawa, and Bauchi. Same in the core south-west (Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ekiti).

WHAT DOES THE NUMBER SUGGEST?

Party officials describe the high turnout as evidence of successful membership registration drives and unwavering loyalty to Tinubu within the APC.

Aspirants and governors reportedly invested heavily in mobilisation, logistics, and incentives.

One plausible explanation could be that movement is restricted during general election and voters also fear violence or show apathy.

This, it can be argued, can lead to a lower voter turnout.

But this factor alone cannot explain the big gap in turnouts between primary and general elections. After all, many would argue, committed party members will always vote during the general election in spite of movement restriction.

In March, Ajibola Basiru, the national secretary of the party, announced that the party had registered about 12 million members and linked them with the National Identity Number (NIN) as required by law.

Critics, however, point to longstanding concerns about bloated party registers, limited independent scrutiny during primaries, and the potential for inflated figures in exercises with far less oversight from the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) when compared to general elections.

In Lagos, for instance, the jump from 572,606 in the 2023 general election to nearly 815,000 in the primary is particularly noteworthy and suggests that the APC still retains a highly mobilisable core in Tinubu’s home base even if broader voter sentiment proved more challenging in the general election.

IMPLICATION FOR 2027

The data paints a picture of a party that has consolidated control of its internal machinery but still faces the harder task of translating that strength into a national electoral victory due to some unpopular decisions and reforms introduced by Tinubu in his first four years.

While the primary demonstrates Tinubu’s dominance within the APC, the gap between internal numbers and 2023 general election performance will likely intensify debates about register integrity and genuine grassroots support.

APC’S 2023 GENERAL ELECTION GUBER RESULTS VS 2026 APC GUBER PRIMARIES

In Adamawa and Ogun, the APC recorded more votes in its governorship primaries than it secured in the entire 2023 governorship election against opposition parties. Despite the generally low voter turnout (often 25–40% nationally), general elections still draw broader participation than internal party exercises.

As Nigeria approaches 2027, these figures will be studied closely by both the ruling party and the opposition. For now, they confirm two things clearly: Tinubu maintains a firm grip on the APC.

However, the ultimate test will come at the ballot box in 2027 when all eligible Nigerians, not just party members, have their say.